Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA), formalizing decades of informal military cooperation. The pact, which includes a collective defence clause, joint military mechanisms, and
intelligence-sharing, has the potential to redefine regional security. While the language of the agreement is brief, any attack on one will be considered an attack on both; the implications are sweeping. This development transforms a relationship built on shared history and informal security collaboration into a formal alliance with global significance.
Saudi Arabia’s Strategic Calculus
For Saudi Arabia, the pact provides reassurance in a turbulent environment. Despite recent diplomatic overtures with Iran, Riyadh remains deeply wary of Tehran’s influence across the region, the Houthis’ resilience in Yemen, and Israel’s growing assertiveness. The United States, once the Kingdom’s undisputed security guarantor, is increasingly perceived as shifting its priorities elsewhere, particularly toward Asia. Meanwhile, ongoing conflicts in the Gulf and the Levant continue to highlight the fragility of the region’s security landscape. In this context, a formal commitment from Pakistan is more than symbolic it serves as a strategic hedge and an assertion that Saudi Arabia is not standing alone.
Pakistan’s Motivations
For Pakistan, the defence pact is both a lifeline and an opportunity. Economically strained and in need of reliable partners, Islamabad benefits directly from stronger ties with Riyadh, a source of financial lifelines, energy supplies, and diplomatic influence.
Beyond economics, the pact elevates Pakistan’s global standing by positioning it as more than a South Asian actor—it becomes a central stakeholder in the broader Muslim world’s security framework. For Pakistan’s military establishment, which has long cultivated its reputation as a guardian of both national and Islamic interests, the pact reinforces that identity and secures its relevance amid regional power shifts.
The Nuclear Dimension
The most sensitive implication of the pact lies in the nuclear sphere. Pakistan is the only Muslim-majority country with a declared nuclear arsenal. Although the agreement does not explicitly reference nuclear guarantees, the possibility that Saudi Arabia could now fall under Pakistan’s nuclear umbrella is a subject of intense speculation. Such an arrangement would have profound consequences. It could alter regional deterrence dynamics, provoke countermeasures from Iran and Israel, and test the resilience of global non-proliferation regimes such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The ambiguity surrounding how Pakistan might extend deterrence, whether through political assurances, forward deployments, or shared decision-making, introduces new uncertainties into an already volatile region.
Implications for India
The Saudi-Pakistan defence pact has significant consequences for India’s strategic interests, both in South Asia and the Gulf. It comes at a time of heightened regional instability, following Israel’s air strikes on Qatar and a deadly India-Pakistan military exchange earlier this year. For New Delhi, the agreement represents a geopolitical setback in the Middle East, where India has worked hard to cultivate influence through energy ties and diaspora diplomacy. It appears on various counts that India has to have a different strategy to reposition itself with Saudi Arabia.
First, the pact revives historical ties between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, enabling Islamabad to leverage its strengthened position with Riyadh to push anti-India narratives on Kashmir within the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). This complicates India’s ability to influence the Islamic world’s stance on the dispute.
Second, India’s energy security could be challenged. As the third-largest consumer of oil globally, India relies heavily on Saudi crude supplies. A deeper Saudi-Pakistan alignment could complicate commercial and geopolitical ties, while India’s 2.6 million-strong diaspora in Saudi Arabia, a vital source of remittances, may face indirect pressures if regional politics take a sharper turn.
Third, counter-terrorism efforts could be undermined. New Delhi’s attempts to isolate Pakistan internationally over its support for militancy may be tempered by Riyadh’s deepened strategic partnership with Islamabad. This could limit Saudi Arabia’s willingness to support India’s diplomatic initiatives against Pakistan in global forums.
Finally, the pact could fuel an arms race in advanced technologies. With Saudi financial support, Pakistan may rapidly modernize its military capabilities, potentially with backing from Turkey and China. Such developments would pressure India into costly military upgrades in AI, space, and electronic warfare to maintain strategic balance.
Regional and Global Reactions
The reactions to the pact reveal its disruptive potential. Egypt and several Gulf states welcomed it as a stabilizing step for Saudi Arabia. Israel has remained publicly silent but privately wary, recognizing that Saudi Arabia’s enhanced deterrence capacity complicates its strategic calculations. For Iran, the agreement is a reminder that its influence is being directly countered, even as it downplays the pact’s importance rhetorically.
Beyond the region, the United States faces a dilemma. While Washington may welcome stronger Saudi capabilities as a check on Iran, the nuclear undertones of the pact conflict with its long-standing non-proliferation agenda. Meanwhile, China and Russia may see the agreement as an opening to expand their influence in the Middle East, capitalizing on Riyadh’s desire to diversify its partnerships.
Risks and Uncertainties
The defence pact is not without risks. The absence of clarity on what actions might trigger a joint response could lead to dangerous miscalculations in a crisis. There is also the risk of fueling an arms race, as regional rivals accelerate their own military modernization programs in response. For Pakistan, the agreement raises the possibility of entanglement in Middle Eastern conflicts, a prospect that may not sit well with its domestic population, which has historically been wary of direct involvement in external wars.
Shield or Burden?
At its core, the Pakistan–Saudi Arabia defence pact is a statement of intent. It signals Riyadh’s determination to secure itself through regional partnerships rather than relying solely on external powers, and it demonstrates Pakistan’s ambition to play a larger role in shaping the security of the Muslim world. Yet the pact also raises difficult questions: will it stabilize the region by deterring aggression, or will it heighten volatility by introducing nuclear ambiguity and deepening rivalries? The answer will depend on how carefully both nations manage their commitments, how rivals interpret their moves, and how global powers choose to respond.
For now, what is clear is that the defence pact is not merely a bilateral arrangement; it is a pivot point in the geopolitics of the Middle East, one that the world cannot afford to ignore.
The author can be contacted at babargorsi@gmail.com
